Set forth below is the text of a comment that i recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“Now we just need to work out whether a valuation adjustment is required to calculate the safe withdrawal rate.”
If only there was someone who could put together a convincing argument that a valuation adjustment is required.
If valuations affect long-term returns, as Shiller showed in his Nobel-prize-winning research, then it’s a logical impossibility that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all valuation levels.
That’s my sincere take, in any event, Evidence.
I naturally wish you all good things.
Rob
Goons goons, goons………….Greaney, Greaney, Greaney, honest posting, honest posting, honest posting………………..repeat for another 20 years.
Okay, Anonymous.
I do wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow, in any event.
Rob
“ I do wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow, in any event.”
That’s not what you said before. You say we are all going to prison because of Buy and Hold.
I said that I believe that you will be going to prison in the days following the next price crash because of the criminal behavior you engaged in in an effort to block millions of people from engaging in the discussions that they need to engage in to develop a full understanding of the far-reaching implications of the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research in this field., I said that because I believe that. I also said that I am going to do everything in my power to get those prison sentences shortened a bit, I intend to do that. For example, when people are discussing how long they believe the prison sentences should be, I am going to argue that people at the Motley Fool board would have been using HIGHER withdrawal rates than 4 percent if Greaney had not been regularly pushing the 4 percent rule. Yes, Greaney has hurt millions of people. He has also helped people. Both things are so.
My motto for the entire 30 years has been: Be as honest as possible without crossing the line and becoming uncharitable while also being as charitable as possible without crossing the line and becoming dishonest. That’s the combination that I believes make sense when living in a world of imperfect and vulnerable humans.
I hope that that helps at least a tiny bit, Anonymous.
Rob